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WHAT HAPPENED?!

The heart of the order

MLB Main Slate 6/24/22

DFS DRAFT KINGS MAIN SLATE PICKS

6/24/22

 

MLB 

 

FRIDAY 

HOUSTON ASTROS @ NEW YORK YANKEES 

YANKEES 

76°  Wind 9 mph R-L

LINE  NYY -130

O/U  7.5 Runs

OF A Judge gpp 

1B A Rizzo *gpp

C J Trevino *gpp

Severino is back and looks good so far - at home he’s got good stuff but Houston is not a team to attack for the most part. I don’t hate it but its a true gamble, I’d have to get to 8 or 9 lineups before I’d play Sevi

ASTROS

P J Verlander *gpp

OF Y Alvarez

K Tucker *gpp

Verlander has been good but if you want to take a shot at him these would be the best bats to attack with. I will land on the Verlander side most likely. He’s been had high K upside so far - the Yankees don’t punch out at a super high rate but there will guys to pick on here and I think he’ll be able to hang around - in 13 starts so far this year Verlander has pitched for 6 innings or longer 10 times, and in his last 4 games he went 7 innings 3 times. At his price over 10k on DK vs the Yankees most ppl may be scared off but we like his K upside as I said and his 2.3 era and the 80+ innings pitched so far this year. Lets roll the dice

BOSTON RED SOX @ CLEVELAND GUARDIANS

80°  Wind 4 mph

LINE  BOS -115

O/U  9.0 Runs

GUARDIANS

3B J Ramirez *gpp

OF J Naylor *gpp

OF O Gonzalez *gpp

OF F Reyes *gpp

Pivetta has been good and he has gas to throw but these Guardians have loaded numbers against right handers at home - and all of them except Franmil Reyes only strikeout less than 10% of the time. Ramirez has the best chance to go yard and Pivetta will pitch about 40% percent flyballs so Im sayin there’s a chance. He can be played as a one-off but I’d rank them as I’ve listed them

RED SOX

3B R Devers *gpp

OF J Martinez *gpp

Cal doesn’t offer enough upside for me to want to pick on these pesky Guardians even though I don’t see many bats roughing him up - fine to leave off Franmil and game stack it

PITTSBURGH PIRATES @ TAMPA BAY RAYS

In Domed Stadium

LINE  TB -210

O/U  7.0 Runs

RAYS

P J Springs 

1B J Choi gpp*

OF H Ramirez 

PIRATES

P M Keller *gpp

3B K Hayes *gpp

1B M Chavis *gpp

2B D Castillo *gpp

Keller doesn’t have dominant stuff but in certain scenarios he can be useful - this one of those. The total here is only 7.5 so Vegas believes Keller doesn’t get blown up also imo. If you don’t believe the hype I’ve offered the 2 best bats against but ultimately too much working in Keller’s favor for me to ignore

Springs is a cash game consideration - should have a lot of ownership. I don’t mind playing him but recommend as a tourney play these 3 bats against. We successfully singled out these Pirates the night they showed up versus the Dodgers big - lets do it again.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS @ ATLANTA BRAVES

86°  Wind 7 mph R-L

LINE  LAD -135

O/U  9.0 Runs

BRAVES

OF R Acuna *gpp

SS D Swanson *gpp

3B A Riley *gpp

C W Contreras *gpp

OF A Duvall *gpp

OF M Harris II *gpp

We have a 9.5 run total in this one, so Vegas is expecting some fireworks. Urias has been good this year and he offers a tough matchup but the braves have beeb rolling as of late. They strike out a ton but if any of these bats besides Harris touch the ball they could send in far and far and far away. Seems like a scenarios where we play Urias and also play a lineup against him

DODGERS

P J Urias *gpp

1B F Freeman *gpp

SS T Turner *gpp

Ian Anderson doesn’t provide a overwhelming amount of confidence but many of the dodgers do not profile that well. He’s too expensive above ($8k) for me to want to take a shot against LA.

At 9.5 I want to game stack this one much more than the Boston/Cleveland, I may even use that stack more than once w diff pitching variations

WASHINGTON NATIONALS @ TEXAS RANGERS

In Domed Stadium

LINE  TEX -155

O/U  9.0 Runs

RANGERS

SS C Seager *gpp

OF A Garcia *gpp

OF K Calhoun *gpp

C J Heim *gpp

NATS

P P Espino *gpp

OF L Thomas *gpp

OF J Soto *gpp

1B J Bell **gpp

Espino has some real nice numbers heading into this matchup - I don’t think he just runs through this Rangers lineup but he also should be able to pay off his price point - he is the cheapest pitcher on the mound for this slate at $5K so it makes a ton of sense with his numbers to play a lineup w him and one against with these bats 

Meanwhile Dane Dunning has been serviceable in real life but remember be upside to beat the gubers - I’ll fade him but try to at least play Bell - Thomas and Soto can fill out the end of a lineup as they are cheap

BALTIMORE ORIOLES @ CHICAGO WHITESOX

82°  Wind 7 mph In

LINE  CWS -155

O/U  9.0 Runs

CHISOX

P Kopech 

OF A Vaughn

3B J Burger **

OF G Sheets *gpp

Kyle Bradish could run into some problems with these right handed SOX batters as the chisox try to even the series

ORIOLES

OF A Santander *gpp

OF A Hays *gpp

Not interested in going against Kopech here, he’s in a nice spot and he’s no where near the most expensive at $9k

OAKLAND A’S @ KANSAS CITY ROYALS

89°  Wind 12 mph R-L

LINE  KC -135

O/U  9.5 Runs

C S Perez *gpp

C M Melendez **

OF M Taylor **

3B E Rivera *gpp

Cole Irvin has been useable in certain spots but this is not one of them. We’ve got a over/under at 9 runs so I think Vegas feels the same. Melendez and Taylor are great cash game pieces today and these 4 as a tournament stack are also fine. Cather is a barren waste land so Melendez provides a clear path if you can pay and then Taylor is $2.4k on DK, at that price he will fill in the bottom of lineups quite nicely

A’S

2B J Lowrie *gpp

I would love to play Greinke and save but I made this mistake last week - he can’t be trusted even though the matchup is soft. The range of outcomes vary from negative points to like 12 fantasy - I’ll save myself the anxiety 

TORONTO BLUE JAYS @ MILWAUKEE BREWERS 

In Domed Stadium

LINE  TOR -145

O/U  8.5 Runs

BREWERS

OF C Yelich *gpp

SS W Adames *gpp

1B R Tellez

OF T Taylor *gpp

JAYS

P A Menoah*gpp

The case against Menoah is not an overwhelming one. The matchups suggests the right handers will struggle against him but the left handers can get to him, perhaps. When you dive closer, though - you see the brew crew only really present Rowdy tellez as a possible issue - the rest of the guys are right handed hitters who are going against a guy with only 2 losses and a 2 era. We have to take a chance on him 

OF G Springer 

1B V Guerrero *gpp

C A Kirk *gpp

I won’t go with Houser but I won’t go crazy against him, Springer is a fine play with Kirk and Vlad completing the tournament trifecta 

COLORADO ROCKIES @ MINNESOTA TWINS

88°  Wind 13 mph R-L

LINE  MIN -165

O/U  9.0 Runs

TWINS

2B L Arraez *gpp

OF B Buxton *gpp

SS C Correa

3B G Urshela *gpp

Twins should make a nice stack against German Marquez 

ROCKIES

OF C Blackmon *gpp

Bundy is too expensive to take a chance with. His last start was awesome and he went 8 innings - but it was against Arizona. Colorado has a little more punch than Arizona and also the Rockies manage to keep the strikeouts to a minimum. 9.5 runs expected here but I’m sticking to these players, have to fit them in bc of that over/under

CHICAGO CUBS @ ST LOUIS CARDINALS

89°  Wind 7 mph R-L

LINE  STL -170

O/U  9.0 Runs

CARDS

P A Pallante

SS B Donovan *gpp

1B P Goldschmidt

3B N Arenado

OF J Yepez *gpp

Kyle Hendricks will do his best to keep in the park against familiar foes in the Cards. I’ll take the Cards side of this one and the 9 implied runs feels about right

CUBS

2B C Morel *gpp

1B A Rivas *gpp

Pallante should not have too much to worry about with the Cubs lineup. He’s been able to keep it in the park and sure - I’m leaving off contreras and happy who have good power but these guys are batting in the low 200s and I don’t want to just be “hoping” -the two cubs bats are fine but Pallante is the superior play due to the massive strikeout upside when facing Cubs bats. He should be able to once again pay off his price tag. $5,500 on DK we have to roll him out in cash formats 

SEATTLE MARINERS @ LOS ANGELES ANGELS

81°  Wind 8 mph Out

LINE  LAA -150

O/U  9.5 Runs

ANGELS

OF Taylor Ward

OF M Trout *gpp 

OF S Ohtani *gpp

OF B Marsh *gpp

Flexen may have some struggles here and the line is against him today, also indicated he’s up for the loss. These are the guys I feel confident about, Taylor is fine in cash but play the other 3 as a mini stack in a tournament for the late night hammer

MARINERS

C Cal Raleigh *gpp

OF T Trammell *gpp

SS J Crawford *gpp

3B E Suarez *gpp

Lorenzen is not useable for me but I’m for these bats against if you like - Cal Raleigh and Trammell feel like the better plays based on the data - maybe I’ll do some combo stack here with these bats from both sides for a tournament. 9.5 implied runs doesn’t do anything but make me want to do this even more.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES @ SAN DIEGO PADRES

74°  Wind 8 mph L-R

LINE  PHI -130

O/U  7.0 Runs

PADRES

OF J Profar *gpp

PHILLIES

P A Nola

OF K Schwarber *gpp

OF B Harper *gpp

OF M Vierling *gpp

Nola is in play and we can roll him out in Cash - there is a ton of upside and he’s facing a lineup that just isn’t the same without Manny in there. He also gets the park shift will definitely help. I like him today

McKenzie Gore has good tournament upside but if I play him I’d also get a lineup of Phillies against.

DETROIT TIGERS @ ARIZONA DIAMONBACKS

In Domed Stadium

LINE  ARI -165

O/U  8.0 Runs

DBACKS

P Merrill Kelly

I don’t like any Detroit bats against, also Kelly provides strikeout upside

1B C Walker *gpp

OF D Peralta *gpp

TIGERS

P R Garcia *gpp

Too enticing not to use Rony here, the Diamondbacks punch out a bunch and Rony has electric stuff - I mean he’s striking out lefties at a 40% rate on the road soooooo yep, there’s a chance these two get to him - he will give up the long ball. I don’t mind the mini stack against bc he has been giving up bombs but I want to chase the upside for this incredible matchup for him. He makes an additional cheap pitcher to go to but Kelly feels safer

CINCINATTI REDS @ SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

57°  Wind 9 mph Out

LINE  SF -205

O/U  7.5 Runs

GIANTS

P A Cobb *gpp

OF J Pederson *gpp

1B B Belt *gpp

Ashcroft is interesting bc he’s been very good against lefties but I just don’t the need at the price - he doesn’t provide THAT much upside so I’m happy to miss out even though the giants will have a ton of lefties in the lineup

REDS

3B M Moustakas *gpp

2B J India *gpp

Cobb is interesting at $8,300 on DK but I just don’t know that I get there. Not against it at all - it would be a tournament play where you are looking for upside with the late night hammer. I don’t even care that much about these bats against - the over/under is pretty low so I’m okay to kinda miss out here. If anything Cobb though

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DFS TIPS

Weather

Be sure to check as close to contest lock as possible - can't win playing guys who were rained out. Also just knowing the weather conditions will make you more aware of premium hitting / pitching conditions

Contest Size

Don't be drawn by allusions of grandeur - contest size matters! Not too many, not too few. Listen to the Heart of the Order podcast for more specifics

Stacking Players

Critical to success. For the best chances of taking down a GPP, you have to stack batters from the same team, preferably in order. Now, thats the basics of stacking and you can listen to the season preview to get more details on the concept

Ownership

Player popularity matters. Not only do you need to score points to win but you also need to differentiate your lineup by not going with all "chalk" or popular players. This is how you cruise past so many others and win a tournament

Contest Selection

Supplement your GPP tourney attempts with your cash game double and 50/50 lineups. GPPS are the home runs you dream of, the cash games are what keep you in business to take those cracks at the GPPS. a nice ratio to play is 70% cash games to 30% GPPS

BUDGET

SET A BUDGET AND STICK TO IT AND NEVER EVER NEVER EVER GO OVER THAT BUDGET.

Any increase in play should come from net winnings and I strongly advise against any aggressive increase after success - stay the course. It boring, but it pay

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